Will the water resources of Israel, Palestine and Jordan remain sufficient to permit economic and social development for the foreseeable future?

摘要

Scenario analysis suggests that by 2050 the population of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip and Jordan will have grown from 17.2 million to between 21.1 and 38.5 million people. These population scenarios are compared to a range of water resource scenarios that consider the effect of climate change, a possible redistribution of the region's shared water resources as a result of a peace agreement, or the status quo. This scenario analysis shows that under all possible population-water scenarios combinations considered, the water resources of Jordan and Israel remain above the minimum threshold required for social and economic development. In the case of the West Bank, water resources may also remain sufficient for all population and climatic scenarios if the West Bank gains a greater portion of the shared water resources. In the Gaza Strip, however, desalination or water imports are required. Will the water resources of Israel, Palestine and Jordan remain sufficient to permit economic and social development for the foreseeable future? Jonathan Chenoweth -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABSTRACT Scenario analysis suggests that by 2050 the population of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip and Jordan will have grown from 17.2 million to between 21.1 and 38.5 million people. These population scenarios are compared to a range of water resource scenarios that consider the effect of climate change, a possible redistribution of the region's shared water resources as a result of a peace agreement, or the status quo. This scenario analysis shows that under all possible population-water scenarios combinations considered, the water resources of Jordan and Israel remain above the minimum threshold required for social and economic development. In the case of the West Bank, water resources may also remain sufficient for all population and climatic scenarios if the West Bank gains a greater portion of the shared water resources. In the Gaza Strip, however, desalination or water imports are required.